Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.