From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”